Having recently founded Spotted Zebra, an independent game studio, one of my first strategic decisions was to select a platform. Like most developers, I have read many success stories about iOS. Likewise, when discussing platforms with other entrepreneurs, the strength of Apple’s platform is oft reinforced. Despite this, I opted to start by releasing my games for Windows 8. What follows will examine the thought process behind my decision and explain why you should reconsider the platform you are targeting.

Sailing the Blue Ocean

Developers appear to be hesitating to support the new platform

On the eve of Windows 8’s release developers remain aloof. Famously, Minecraft author “Notch” has come out against Windows 8 because he fears it will harm open platforms. Whether or not he is correct, developers seem to share his reluctance, and as I write this less than one thousand games are available on the Windows 8 Store1. Developers indeed seem to be a curiously conservative type, but even if the number of games should triple ahead of Windows 8’s launch it is clear that the platform will have relatively few games.

It’s an ocean, not a sea

Of course, there are many platforms with very few games. What distinguishes Windows 8 from, say, Windows Phone? In a word, scale. Regardless of whether you use Windows or not, it is likely that Microsoft will sell many copies of its latest operating system in the coming year. Not convinced? Take a look at the first year sales for Windows Vista and Windows 72:

First Year Sales for Windows Vista and Windows 7
In their first year, Windows 7 & Vista sold over 100,000,000 copies. How many copies do you think Windows 8 will sell in its first year?

Given that Vista was widely perceived to be a failure, Vista’s sales are likely a lower bound. After all, Microsoft is spending huge sums on advertising for Windows 8 as well as offering it as an upgrade for an unprecedented $403. Bottom line, there will likely be over 100,000,000 potential customers on the platform a year from now with very few great games to satisfy their tastes or open their wallets for.

Red Storms Ahead

Some perspective on your favorite platform

All of that said, it is worth comparing the prospects of Windows 8 against those of iOS. As the platform to beat, iOS often gets a free pass when discussing strategy. However, entrepreneurs are doing themselves a disservice by avoiding the facts. For starters, the iOS marketplace is not as big as you think. Let us look at the number of iPhones and iPads sold in 20114:

Sales of iOS and Windows in 2011
In 2011 Windows sold twice as many copies as iOS. Sales may be converging, but do you expect them to meet in 2012?

As should be clear, in the past calendar year the iPhone actually sold fewer units than Windows Vista sold in its first year. Though the iOS market is a hot one, it is still relatively small. None can deny that the iPhone has a head start on Windows 8. According to Apple’s Q2 earnings call the company sold 365,000,000 iOS devices to date. But it is not difficult to imagine that number being overtaken by Windows 8 in the next two years if sales of past versions of Windows are any indication.

Fighting for the crumbs

Looking beyond sheer volume, I wonder whether there is any profit left in the iOS market for small game studios such as Spotted Zebra that do not yet have strong intellectual property or a big marketing budget. Everyone agrees that Apple’s marketplace is getting more competitive, but just how competitive? According to a survey run by Owen Goss at Streaming Colour most of the revenue is captured by a small handful of developers5:

80% of game developers surveyed are fighting over 3% of total revenue on iOS. How are you going to ensure you are not one of them?

Given this breakdown it is clear just how competitive the app marketplace has become. With 90% of games earning less than $400,000, how can a small team pay itself let alone make a profit? Owen’s findings confirm what we already know: Apple’s App Store is a winner-take-all market and in order to run a successful business you have to somehow outperform 90% of your competitors. Hard to do if you do not have a game-of-the-year or $30,0006 set aside for advertising.

Who Are You Rooting For?

Ultimately, what’s important is that my company, Spotted Zebra — or yours — can grow its brand, develop strong intellectual property, and earn a profit. In the end we are running our businesses for ourselves — not Apple or Microsoft.

Nonetheless, Windows 8 is set to sell a 100,000,000 or more copies. That and the relative lack of competition on the platform mean that there is a golden opportunity to accomplish our business goals. And it is not simply about making a quick buck. Success begets success, and once your game is proven on Windows 8 it will be easier to assail Apple’s App Store. So, why are you still targeting iOS?

Endnotes

  1. App count based on current results for “Games” in Windows 8 Store.
  2. Windows Vista first year sales from Windows Blog press release.
  3. Upgrade pricing according to the Windows 8 Blog.
  4. iPhone and iPad figures from Apple’s 2011 annual financial report. Windows 7 sales calculated from Wikipedia.
  5. Game sales figures from Owen Goss’s survey.
  6. Estimated marketing budget from App Promo.